BWJ 009: $486k By April; Lebanese Monetary Woes; Stupid Cheap Bitcoin; and more...
This week: How does technical analysis and the block clock help us predict the future? How bad do things have to get before people opt out? What can we learn from an experienced risk trader?
$486k By April
How does technical analysis and the block clock help us predict the future?
The truth is, no one can predict the future, but sometimes it’s fun to try!… Right? On reading “A Block Based Take on 4 Year Cycle Theory” by Michael Schmidt, my imagination ran wild, sparked by his price prediction of $486,000 usd by April 2022; a huge price if achieved.
The angle to his technical analysis I like most, is the recognition that we should study Bitcoin through fresh eyes, focused on the underlying design characteristics of the asset. What this highlights is how unsuitable our status quo calendar is, the current tool we use to measure time, especially when it comes to predicting Bitcoin cycle tops.
Additionally I agree with the premise that we’re not going to see ‘diminishing returns from cycle to cycle’ yet, a belief held by some who hypothesise we’re through the early adoption phase already, additional justification for an positive outlook. Finally, it’s insights such as this that leave me not only curious about the relationship between time and Bitcoin, but browsing for the latest ‘Block Clock’.
Lebanese Monetary Woes
How bad do things have to get before people opt out?
First and foremost, my heart goes out to the people of Lebanon, this must be an incredibly challenging time. It’s my hope that crises such as these, spark an investigation not only into the people to be held accountable, but also enable a shift towards the world’s first open monetary network: Bitcoin.
This is a story which highlights just how criminal central banking really is! What law enables banks to close and deny access to savings? Why is it that a small group of people are trusted with managing everyones money? How is that people can lose 90% of the value of their life savings?
Bitcoin is open 24/7, has a fixed money supply, and is accessible to anyone; it will enable a financial system without tales of centralised miss-management. Night is darkest just before the dawn…
Stupid Cheap Bitcoin
What can we learn from an experienced risk trader?
Leveraging other people’s research is a sound philosophy when looking at making investments, especially when they’re people with deep expertise, such as the inspiring Greg Foss. His article “The Intrinsic Value Of Bitcoin, Calculated Using Sovereign Credit Default Swaps” whilst brief, packs a punch, and is unabashedly bullish.
As a Bitcoiner one can’t help but smile on hearing that the asset is undervalued, but it’s the fact he frames it as insurance against the implosion of our current system, that particularly caught my attention. It left me wondering: how many more experienced risk traders are out there buying Bitcoin?
Without a doubt we’re seeing a renaissance in amateur investing, enabled due to the open musings of generous talent such as this, which I will be forever grateful for. Ignore at your peril friends!
Highly recommend:
Listen: “Cypherpunks, Money and Bitcoin” with Nick Szabo and Peter McCormack
Read: “Your Money and Your Life” by Edward Snowden
Watch: “The Ultimate Bitcoin Argument” with Murad Mahmudov and Anthony Pompliano
Top tweets:
We’re So Bloody Early
Episode 4 of our new podcast is now live!